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Diese Informationen können direkt aus dem Report deines durchgeführten Tests übernommen werden.",[1074],{"type":1075,"attrs":1076},"textStyle",{"color":1077},"#000000","richtext-text",{"_uid":1080,"icon":1081,"text":1082,"component":1095},"62d6f9f3-5fc0-4ba8-837d-6c047bfadda8","lightbulb-filament",{"type":39,"content":1083},[1084],{"type":42,"content":1085},[1086,1090],{"text":1087,"type":513,"marks":1088},"Anmerkung:",[1089],{"type":1009},{"text":1091,"type":513,"marks":1092}," Aktuell ist der Rechner nur für Tests mit genau einer Variante + Control geeignet.",[1093],{"type":1075,"attrs":1094},{"color":1077},"richtext-callout",{"_uid":1097,"text":1098,"component":1078},"209de77d-c27c-483c-8404-ece0da3615e3",{"type":39,"content":1099},[1100,1104,1126],{"type":42,"content":1101},[1102],{"text":1103,"type":513},"Anschließend erhältst du als Ausgabe eine bayesianische Auswertung der vorliegenden Testergebnisse für die folgenden drei Metriken:",{"type":1105,"content":1106},"bullet_list",[1107,1114,1120],{"type":1108,"content":1109},"list_item",[1110],{"type":42,"content":1111},[1112],{"text":1113,"type":513},"Conversion Rate",{"type":1108,"content":1115},[1116],{"type":42,"content":1117},[1118],{"text":1119,"type":513},"Average Order Value",{"type":1108,"content":1121},[1122],{"type":42,"content":1123},[1124],{"text":1125,"type":513},"Revenue per Visitor",{"type":42,"content":1127},[1128],{"text":1129,"type":513},"Eine Zusammenfassung der Ergebnisse dieser Auswertung erscheint im oberen Bereich des Tools.",{"_uid":1131,"image":1132,"caption":1138,"component":1139},"2764cfbc-a895-4f86-82b7-3a8c84c14438",{"id":1133,"alt":1134,"name":30,"focus":30,"title":1135,"source":30,"filename":1136,"copyright":30,"fieldtype":49,"meta_data":1137,"is_external_url":51},62144465102465,"Die Tabelle fasst die Testergebnisse zusammen: Die Variante erreicht bei der Conversion Rate (CR) einen Uplift von 10 %","Bayes Zusammenfassung","https://a.storyblok.com/f/328018/1004x454/5bcbdd3a3b/zusammenfassung-bayes-rechner.png",{"alt":1134,"title":1135,"source":30,"copyright":30},"Abbildung 2: Testergebnisse einer Bayes-Analyse","richtext-image",{"_uid":1141,"text":1142,"component":1078},"85177df6-b9db-4464-945d-6c89b19e4bbc",{"type":39,"content":1143},[1144,1148],{"type":42,"content":1145},[1146],{"text":1147,"type":513},"So sind die einzelnen Spalten zu interpretieren:",{"type":1105,"content":1149},[1150,1160,1170],{"type":1108,"content":1151},[1152],{"type":42,"content":1153},[1154,1158],{"text":1155,"type":513,"marks":1156},"Control bzw. Variante:",[1157],{"type":1009},{"text":1159,"type":513}," Conversion Rate (CR), Average Order Value (AOV), Revenue per Visitor (RPV) in der Control bzw. Variante",{"type":1108,"content":1161},[1162],{"type":42,"content":1163},[1164,1168],{"text":1165,"type":513,"marks":1166},"Uplift:",[1167],{"type":1009},{"text":1169,"type":513}," Der gemessene relative Uplift bzgl. der Metriken CR, AOV und RPV",{"type":1108,"content":1171},[1172],{"type":42,"content":1173},[1174,1178],{"text":1175,"type":513,"marks":1176},"Gewinnchance (Variante):",[1177],{"type":1009},{"text":1179,"type":513}," Wahrscheinlichkeit, mit welcher die Variante gegen die Control bzgl. der jeweiligen Metrik (CR, AOV oder RPV) gewinnt, d.h. Wahrscheinlichkeit, mit welcher der tatsächliche Uplift größer als 0 % ist.",{"_uid":1181,"icon":1081,"text":1182,"component":1095},"539c4330-8929-4f0e-a9f5-bc589f223638",{"type":39,"content":1183},[1184],{"type":42,"content":1185},[1186,1190],{"text":1187,"type":513,"marks":1188},"Wichtig:",[1189],{"type":1009},{"text":1191,"type":513,"marks":1192}," Die Gewinnchance bezieht sich nicht (!) auf den Uplift. Die Zahlen des oberen Beispiels bedeuten eben nicht, dass es eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 95,84 % für einen Uplift von 10 % in der Conversion Rate gibt. Dies ist “nur” die Wahrscheinlichkeit dafür, dass es einen Uplift größer Null gibt. Die Wahrscheinlichkeiten für bestimmte Uplifts und Mindest-Uplifts können aus den darunterliegenden Wahrscheinlichkeitsverteilungen abgelesen werden.",[1193],{"type":1075,"attrs":1194},{"color":1077},{"_uid":1196,"text":1197,"component":1078},"2bd48144-2e63-4d77-a2f6-e9ee82b99987",{"type":39,"content":1198},[1199,1207,1211],{"type":927,"attrs":1200,"content":1202},{"level":1201},3,[1203],{"text":1204,"type":513,"marks":1205},"Uplift Wahrscheinlichkeiten",[1206],{"type":1009},{"type":42,"content":1208},[1209],{"text":1210,"type":513},"Die Ergebnis-Grafiken zeigen, mit welcher Wahrscheinlichkeit die Variante verschiedene Uplift-Werte annimmt:",{"type":1105,"content":1212},[1213,1219],{"type":1108,"content":1214},[1215],{"type":42,"content":1216},[1217],{"text":1218,"type":513},"Grüne Balken: Wahrscheinlichkeiten für den Uplift",{"type":1108,"content":1220},[1221],{"type":42,"content":1222},[1223],{"text":1224,"type":513},"Rote Balken: Wahrscheinlichkeiten für den Downcast",{"_uid":1226,"image":1227,"caption":1233,"component":1139},"99c1c7c0-8303-4167-816a-37a461556d19",{"id":1228,"alt":1229,"name":30,"focus":30,"title":1230,"source":30,"filename":1231,"copyright":30,"fieldtype":49,"meta_data":1232,"is_external_url":51},62144465098368,"Das Histogramm zeigt die Verteilung der möglichen Uplift-Werte für die Conversion Rate (CR) eines Tests. Auf der X-Achse ist der prozentuale Uplift aufgetragen, auf der Y-Achse die Wahrscheinlichkeit. Grüne Balken zeigen positive Effekte (Uplift), rote Balken negative Effekte (Downcast). Die Fläche unter den grünen Balken rechts der Null-Linie gibt an, wie wahrscheinlich es ist, dass der Test einen positiven Effekt hat – je weiter rechts die Verteilung liegt, desto wahrscheinlicher ein signifikanter Uplift. In diesem Fall liegt der Schwerpunkt klar im positiven Bereich.","Uplift Wahrscheinlichkeit","https://a.storyblok.com/f/328018/1130x526/971c2e4124/uplift-wahrscheinlichkeiten-bayes-rechner.png",{"alt":1229,"title":1230,"source":30,"copyright":30},"Abbildung 3: Uplift-Wahrscheinlichkeiten bei A/B Tests",{"_uid":1235,"icon":1081,"text":1236,"component":1095},"e0b861b4-3cc8-4b7e-b6d0-054061e91f04",{"type":39,"content":1237},[1238,1249],{"type":42,"content":1239},[1240,1244],{"text":1241,"type":513,"marks":1242},"So sind die Grafiken zu lesen:",[1243],{"type":1009},{"text":1245,"type":513,"marks":1246}," ",[1247],{"type":1075,"attrs":1248},{"color":1077},{"type":42,"content":1250},[1251],{"text":1252,"type":513,"marks":1253},"Die Wahrscheinlichkeit, dass die Variante einen Uplift von X % ergibt, liegt bei Y %.",[1254],{"type":1255},"italic",{"_uid":1257,"text":1258,"component":1078},"8812f66e-93ac-426c-ab04-5a4e8370d06c",{"type":39,"content":1259},[1260],{"type":42,"content":1261},[1262],{"text":1263,"type":513,"marks":1264},"Die Grafiken für CR, AOV und RPV erhältst du, in dem du den jeweiligen Reiter oberhalb von der Grafik anklickst. Sie dienen einer allgemeinen Übersicht über die Verteilung der Uplift-Werte. Im Business-Kontext sind allerdings die Ergebnisse für die “Wahrscheinlichkeiten für Mindest-Uplift” informativer (siehe unten).",[1265],{"type":1075,"attrs":1266},{"color":1077},{"_uid":1268,"text":1269,"component":1078},"ef5bc365-6039-4527-a3a5-5cecfb2771ae",{"type":39,"content":1270},[1271,1278,1288],{"type":927,"attrs":1272,"content":1273},{"level":1201},[1274],{"text":1275,"type":513,"marks":1276},"Mindest-Uplift Wahrscheinlichkeiten",[1277],{"type":1009},{"type":42,"content":1279},[1280,1282,1286],{"text":1281,"type":513},"Die Grafiken zeigen, mit welcher Wahrscheinlichkeit die Variante verschiedene ",{"text":1283,"type":513,"marks":1284},"Mindest-Uplift-Werte",[1285],{"type":1009},{"text":1287,"type":513}," annimmt:",{"type":1105,"content":1289},[1290,1296],{"type":1108,"content":1291},[1292],{"type":42,"content":1293},[1294],{"text":1295,"type":513},"Grüne Balken: Wahrscheinlichkeiten für den Mindest-Uplift",{"type":1108,"content":1297},[1298],{"type":42,"content":1299},[1300],{"text":1301,"type":513},"Rote Balken: Wahrscheinlichkeiten für den Mindest-Downcast",{"_uid":1303,"image":1304,"caption":1309,"component":1139},"e4b15a8e-df74-4ee1-b7b2-9983d4c74745",{"id":1305,"alt":1306,"name":30,"focus":30,"title":1230,"source":30,"filename":1307,"copyright":30,"fieldtype":49,"meta_data":1308,"is_external_url":51},62144465106562,"Das Diagramm zeigt die Wahrscheinlichkeit, mit der ein bestimmter Mindest-Uplift in der Conversion Rate (CR) erreicht wird. Auf der X-Achse ist der prozentuale Uplift bzw. Downcast aufgetragen, auf der Y-Achse die Wahrscheinlichkeit. Die grüne Kurve zeigt, wie wahrscheinlich ein positiver Effekt (Uplift) mindestens erreicht wird – je größer der angestrebte Uplift, desto geringer die Wahrscheinlichkeit. Die rote Linie zeigt die Wahrscheinlichkeit für einen negativen Effekt (Downcast). Die Tabelle oben verdeutlicht, dass z. B. ein Uplift von >0,5 % mit 95 %-iger Sicherheit erreicht werden kann.","https://a.storyblok.com/f/328018/1130x650/0993c3015c/mindest-uplift-wahrscheinlichkeiten-bayes-rechner.png",{"alt":1306,"title":1230,"source":30,"copyright":30},"Abbildung 4: Mindest-Uplift-Wahrscheinlichkeiten bei A/B Tests",{"_uid":1311,"icon":1081,"text":1312,"component":1095},"b6a7a5d4-5e37-4549-a1c1-1d4294a0cf96",{"type":39,"content":1313},[1314,1323],{"type":42,"content":1315},[1316,1319],{"text":1241,"type":513,"marks":1317},[1318],{"type":1009},{"text":1245,"type":513,"marks":1320},[1321],{"type":1075,"attrs":1322},{"color":1077},{"type":42,"content":1324},[1325],{"text":1326,"type":513,"marks":1327},"Mit einer Wahrscheinlichkeit von X % ergibt die Variante einen Uplift von mindestens Y %.",[1328],{"type":1255},{"_uid":1330,"text":1331,"component":1078},"7d78f650-a309-472a-a912-516d8bf0bc5c",{"type":39,"content":1332},[1333],{"type":42,"content":1334},[1335],{"text":1336,"type":513,"marks":1337},"Die Tabellen (siehe Abbildung 4) bieten eine Schnellübersicht über die Mindest-Uplift-Werte mit den höchsten Wahrscheinlichkeiten (im Schritt von 5 %).",[1338],{"type":1075,"attrs":1339},{"color":1077},{"_uid":1341,"text":1342,"component":1078},"d85349aa-fc8b-4d22-be3d-6a0dd4723875",{"type":39,"content":1343},[1344,1351,1355],{"type":927,"attrs":1345,"content":1346},{"level":1201},[1347],{"text":1348,"type":513,"marks":1349},"Business Case Berechnung",[1350],{"type":1009},{"type":42,"content":1352},[1353],{"text":1354,"type":513},"Die Business Case Berechnung wird durch Anklicken der Schaltfläche Business Case Berechnung im Input Bereich aktiviert (siehe Abbildung 5). Für die Berechnung benötigst du zunächst weitere Informationen:",{"type":1105,"content":1356},[1357,1367,1381,1392,1398],{"type":1108,"content":1358},[1359],{"type":42,"content":1360},[1361,1365],{"text":1362,"type":513,"marks":1363},"Testlaufzeit",[1364],{"type":1009},{"text":1366,"type":513}," (in Tagen)",{"type":1108,"content":1368},[1369],{"type":42,"content":1370},[1371,1375,1377,1379],{"text":1372,"type":513,"marks":1373},"Traffic-Anteil",[1374],{"type":1009},{"text":1376,"type":513}," (in %)",{"type":1378},"hard_break",{"text":1380,"type":513},"Falls ein gewisser Traffic-Anteil aus dem Test ausgeschlossen wurde, gib hier den ungefähren Wert an (100 % minus ausgeschlossener Traffic-Anteil). Beispiel: Im Test auf der Produktdetailseite wurden Nutzer:innen mit Internet Explorer ausgeschlossen. Dieser Anteil beträgt historisch 10 %. Dementsprechend war der Traffic-Anteil des Tests 90 %.",{"type":1108,"content":1382},[1383],{"type":42,"content":1384},[1385,1389,1390],{"text":1386,"type":513,"marks":1387},"Zeitrahmen der Umsatzdifferenz",[1388],{"type":1009},{"type":1378},{"text":1391,"type":513},"Damit ist der Zeitrahmen in der Zukunft gemeint, für den der Umsatzanstieg durch die Variante bei bleibenden Konditionen berechnet werden soll (3, 6 oder 12 Monate).",{"type":1108,"content":1393},[1394],{"type":42,"content":1395},[1396],{"text":1397,"type":513},"Durch Anklicken der Schaltfläche Dämpfung besteht die Möglichkeit, den gemessenen Uplift für Revenue per Visitor zu verringern, um damit mögliche Gewöhnungseffekte zu berücksichtigen. Mögliche Gründe dafür, dass der A/B-Test in der Zukunft nicht den gleichen Impact hat wie jetzt, sind beispielsweise Veränderungen auf der Website, Novelty Effect, Marketing-Kampagnen, Konkurrenz etc.",{"type":1108,"content":1399},[1400],{"type":42,"content":1401},[1402,1404,1408],{"text":1403,"type":513},"Als ",{"text":1405,"type":513,"marks":1406},"Dämpfungsfaktor",[1407],{"type":1009},{"text":1409,"type":513}," (in %) ist in der Regel ein Wert zwischen 20 % – 50 % empfehlenswert, um die Szenarien nicht zu optimistisch einzuschätzen.",{"_uid":1411,"icon":1412,"text":1413,"component":1095},"2c02c6e1-5865-4bac-a02c-6b93a204c559","calculator",{"type":39,"content":1414},[1415,1425],{"type":42,"content":1416},[1417,1421],{"text":1418,"type":513,"marks":1419},"Beispielrechnung:",[1420],{"type":1009},{"text":1245,"type":513,"marks":1422},[1423],{"type":1075,"attrs":1424},{"color":1077},{"type":42,"content":1426},[1427],{"text":1428,"type":513,"marks":1429},"Der gemessene Uplift für RPV ist 10 %. Der Dämpfungsfaktor ist 38 %. Ergebnis: Der gedämpfte Uplift für RPV, mit dem die Umsatzdifferenz berechnet wird, ist gleich (1 – 0.38) * 10 % = 6.62 %.",[1430],{"type":1075,"attrs":1431},{"color":1077},{"_uid":1433,"text":1434,"component":1078},"934f2c8b-7d90-4804-bf58-ac3b2a524749",{"type":39,"content":1435},[1436,1443],{"type":42,"content":1437},[1438],{"text":1439,"type":513,"marks":1440},"Der Business Case hilft dabei, die Performance des A/B-Tests (Uplift bzgl. RPV) in Umsatzzahlen zu übersetzen. Die Grafik zeigt, mit welcher Wahrscheinlichkeit die Variante welche Mindest-Umsatzdifferenz im gewählten Zeitraum schafft (siehe folgende Abbildung).",[1441],{"type":1075,"attrs":1442},{"color":1077},{"type":1105,"content":1444},[1445,1451],{"type":1108,"content":1446},[1447],{"type":42,"content":1448},[1449],{"text":1450,"type":513},"Grüne Kurve: Wahrscheinlichkeiten für Mindest-Umsatzanstieg",{"type":1108,"content":1452},[1453],{"type":42,"content":1454},[1455],{"text":1456,"type":513},"Rote Kurve: Wahrscheinlichkeiten für einen Mindest-Umsatzrückgang",{"_uid":1458,"image":1459,"caption":30,"component":1139},"6ea163e6-4499-493f-b658-811365be860c",{"id":1460,"alt":1306,"name":30,"focus":30,"title":1461,"source":30,"filename":1462,"copyright":30,"fieldtype":49,"meta_data":1463,"is_external_url":51},62146122802963,"Bayes Business Case","https://a.storyblok.com/f/328018/1132x653/375bd54051/bayesianischer-business-case.png",{"alt":1306,"title":1461,"source":30,"copyright":30},{"_uid":1465,"icon":1081,"text":1466,"component":1095},"33d1f6a9-5bca-4527-9490-d5ed5a3bd152",{"type":39,"content":1467},[1468,1475,1479],{"type":42,"content":1469},[1470,1474],{"text":1471,"type":513,"marks":1472},"So sind die Grafik/Tabelle zu lesen:",[1473],{"type":1009},{"text":1245,"type":513},{"type":42,"content":1476},[1477],{"text":1478,"type":513},"Mit einer Wahrscheinlichkeit von X % erzeugt die Variante einen Umsatzanstieg von mindestens € Y (in Tausend) in den nächsten 3, 6 oder 12 Monaten.",{"type":42,"content":1480},[1481],{"type":1378,"marks":1482},[1483,1487],{"type":1484,"attrs":1485},"link",{"href":1486,"uuid":118,"anchor":118,"target":118,"linktype":136},"https://www.konversionskraft.de/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/bayesianischer-business-case.png",{"type":1488},"underline",[],{"_uid":1491,"head":1492,"cards":1509,"theme":124,"alignment":44,"component":1638,"cards_per_row":668,"action_buttons":1639,"bordered_cards":81},"b9122f6f-65f2-4984-8f43-53d34298df09",[1493],{"_uid":1494,"kicker":1495,"headline":1496,"component":514,"subheadline":1503,"show_top_line":81},"2e3cd3d2-1993-4740-9b33-cb48a3b0e3dc","Klarer testen. Sicherer entscheiden. Besser optimieren.",{"type":39,"content":1497},[1498],{"type":927,"attrs":1499,"content":1500},{"level":1056},[1501],{"text":1502,"type":513},"Kennst du schon unsere anderen Tools?",{"type":39,"content":1504},[1505],{"type":42,"content":1506},[1507],{"text":1508,"type":513},"Ob Konfidenz, Laufzeit oder Business Impact: Mit diesen 6 Tools bekommst du fundierte Antworten auf deine wichtigsten Testfragen – einfach, schnell und verständlich. 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